There has been a predictable sense of doom and gloom surrounding the Labour Party from the mainstream media with the likes of the BBC trying for all their might to equate Labour’s loss of 82 seats to the Tories loss of 1335 seats.
However, this isn’t quite the whole truth. Professor John Curtice has calculated that should the results be translated into a general election that both Labour and the Conservatives would have 28% of the vote. The result is a predicted national share.
The swing away from the Tories would create a hung parliament with Labour in the commanding position to form a coalition or rule via minority government.
The swings would translate into the following breakdown of seats.
The statistics show that the flow of support away from the Tories and toward the Lib Dems and the hard Brexit parties will be costly and only reinforces the Labour position of allowing the government to implode while attempting to not alienate either side of the Brexit debate. Making a strong commitment to either side would only result in a generation-long shut out amongst either working class or liberal voters.
However, the local elections are a very different beast to general elections and low turnouts, uncontested seats, protest votes and independent localist candidates always play a factor in perhaps not showing a full picture of national opinion.
The results also do not take into account any potential fallout from a final resolution of Brexit prior to a future election, with future decisions potentially bleeding support toward the Lib Dems on the one hand or the likes of the Brexit party on the other.
With the potential for a hung parliament on the table and both parties seemingly incredibly close in terms of percentages, political uncertainty is likely to stay for the foreseeable future.
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